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The Dollar Heyday Is Over
Author: John Finger
Money Matters
December 18, 2003
Presented by The Money Management Firm, Inc.
www.moneymanagementfirm.com
eBay ID: optionsforyou
The Dollar’s Heyday Is Over
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PAYCHECK GUIDE: The following helpful guide has been prepared to help our employees better understand their paychecks:
Item Amount Gross pay $1,222.02 Income tax $244.40 Outgo tax $45.21 State tax $11.61 Interstate tax $61.10 County tax $6.11 City tax $12.22 Rural tax $4.44 Back tax $1.11 Front tax $1.16 Side tax $1.61 Up tax $1.08 Down tax $1.14 Tic-Tacs $1.98 Thumbtacks $3.93 Carpet tacks $0.98 Stadium tax $0.69 Flat tax $8.32 Surtax $2.23 Madam tax $1.23 Corporate tax $2.60 Parking fee $5.00 F.I.C.A. $81.88 T.G.I.F. Fund $9.95 Life insurance $5.85 Health insurance $16.23 Dental insurance $4.50 Mental insurance $4.33 Disability $2.50 Ability $0.25 Liability $3.41 Coffee $6.85 Coffee Cups $66.51 Floor rental $16.85 Chair rental $0.32 Desk rental $4.32 Union dues $5.85 Union don'ts $3.77 Cash advance $0.69 Cash retreats $121.35 Overtime $1.26 Undertime $54.83 Eastern time $9.00 Central time $8.00 Mountain time $7.00 Pacific time $6.00 Time Out $12.21 Oxygen $10.02 Water $16.54 Heat $51.42 Cool air $26.83 Hot air $20.00 Miscellaneous $113.29 Various $8.01 Sundry $12.09 ------- Net Take Home Pay $0.02
Since 1944, the U.S. dollar has been respected as the world’s most stable, valuable and useful currency. It has represented freedom and opportunity. Now, unfortunately, that era is coming to an abrupt end.
The Bretton Woods agreement of 1944 established the U.S. dollar as the world’s reserve currency. Not only was it the currency of the richest victor of World War II, but the value of the dollar was tied to gold, ensuring its value over the long term. Then, on August 15, 1971, President Nixon took the dollar off of the gold standard, an epochal change after more than two thousand five hundred years during which money had always been based explicitly or implicitly on a precious metal, prevalently gold. Gold acted as an anchor both for the monetary system and for the economic system by making maintenance of the parity a constraint on economic policy. Now the anchor was away. The dollar became a fiat currency, meaning there was nothing standardized by which people could judge its value. The government became free to print as much money as it needed in order to fulfill its obligations.
Not surprisingly, inflation took off like a rocket after Nixon’s action. Inflation was only halted by high interest rates, complements of the Federal Reserve Board. Soon after inflation came under control in 1981, the huge budget deficits of the Reagan years came along. Those budget deficits have snowballed with each passing year into an alarming amount of federal debt. They continued through the Bush 41 and early Clinton years. A booming economy during the later Clinton years allowed the government to balance the books and even run a surplus. Chairman Greenspan was even talking about the negative implications of paying off the national debt!
That’s one problem we don’t have anymore. President Bush 43 and Congress have allowed debt to spiral out of control. The 2004 budget deficit should be nearly $500 billion. As of December 15, 2003, the U.S. has accumulated $6,935,737,372,166.74 in national debt. That’s nearly seven trillion dollars, or $23,684.72 for every man, woman and child in America. How will the government pay for all this debt? In the short haul, the government pays for the debt by issuing U.S. Treasury securities. In other words, the Fed prints money. When they print money, the value of each dollar decreases. Investors gobble up those securities and think they’re placing their money in the safest securities around. If investors are to be paid off, they will be paid in less-valued dollars. It’s like a game of musical chairs: the Feds use money from freshly-issued Treasury securities to pay off the old ones and finance interest on other bonds. The government must issue more and more securities and money with rising deficits. This game can go on for a long time and has already done so. But everyone knows what happens when the music stops.
The decreasing value of the dollar means hard assets must rise in price. We’re seeing this in many commodities. Gold has been rising since 2001. Until now, countries could pay for oil with dollars. Now OPEC ministers talk of switching the payment method from the dollar to either the Euro or gold, both of which hold their value much better than the dollar. When that happens, the dollar will no longer be the world’s premier currency. And a declining dollar means you’ll have to pay a lot more money for the goods you need.
The world has been down this road before. After World War I, the Allies stuck Germany with reparation payments as a penalty for starting the war. The German economy was weak, so the German government asked the Allies to let up on their demands. When the Allies refused, the German printing press went to work. The government met its payment obligations, but at a cost of its economy: it didn’t take long before Germans were loading wheelbarrows full of Marks in order to buy a loaf of bread.
Many other historical examples show us that we’re heading down the same road. The Continental Congress printed bonds during the Revolutionary War. The useless currency and obligations became wallpaper after the war ended. France had the same problem during its own revolution. President Lincoln decoupled the dollar from gold during the Civil War and inflated our currency nearly into oblivion. Now the war on terrorism, although a laudable goal, serves as a black hole for our dollars, much like prior wars have done. And we have a huge deficit even without that war. Added to the mess is the new health care bill and pending retirement of millions of baby boomers, all of which will add even more stress on federal coffers. Unchecked, unfettered government spending will be one of the major contributors to the ruin of the U.S. dollar. Keep that wheelbarrow handy; you’ll need it when the music stops.
You can pass this newsletter around to others as long as you keep the website links.
http://www.moneymanagementfirm.com
About the AuthorJohn Finger is an attorney and former Certified Financial Planner of 10 years. His website, www.moneymanagementfirm.com, is for investors and traders who want information about stocks and three levels of option trades ...
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